Is Zimbabwe a Democracy

Step One: Estimating "Days in Prison" {or on remand for sentencing, bail or even charges}

X.com GROK3-Link 24th November 2017 to 1st March 2025;

Estimating the total number of "days in prison or on remand" for activists, opposition members, and journalists in Zimbabwe during Emmerson Mnangagwa's term in office (from November 2017 to March 1, 2025) is a challenging task due to the lack of comprehensive, centralized data and the sheer volume of cases involved. However, based on available reports from human rights organizations, news outlets, and official statements, it is possible to piece together a rough estimate by aggregating known instances and extrapolating where data is incomplete. Let’s approach this systematically, acknowledging the limitations and grounding the estimate in documented examples.

Mnangagwa assumed power on November 24, 2017, following a military coup that ousted Robert Mugabe. From that date to today, March 1, 2025, approximately 2,654 days have elapsed (accounting for leap years: 2018 had 365 days, 2019 had 365, 2020 had 366, 2021 had 365, 2022 had 365, 2023 had 365, 2024 had 366, and 2025 has 60 days up to March 1). During this period, numerous reports highlight a pattern of arrests, detentions, and prolonged pretrial remand targeting critics of the government, particularly from the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), Transform Zimbabwe, and other activist groups, as well as journalists like Hopewell Chin’ono.

Key Documented Cases

Let’s start with some high-profile examples where the number of days in detention is explicitly reported:

• Job Sikhala (CCC Opposition Leader): Arrested June 14, 2022, and released January 2024 after 595 days in pretrial detention at Chikurubi Maximum Security Prison on charges of inciting public violence and obstruction of justice. This is one of the longest recorded detentions under Mnangagwa’s term.
• Hopewell Chin’ono (Journalist): Arrested multiple times between 2020 and 2021. Reports indicate he spent approximately 94 days in detention across three arrests (e.g., 45 days in 2020 related to the July 31 protests, plus additional periods in 2021). Amnesty International notes over 80 days between July 2020 and January 2021, but cumulative totals suggest slightly more.
• Jacob Ngarivhume (Transform Zimbabwe Leader): Arrested July 23, 2020, and spent 45 days in remand prison before bail. Later arrested April 2020, convicted, and sentenced to 48 months (with 12 suspended), serving roughly 8 months (approximately 240 days) until December 2023. Another arrest on August 2, 2024, led to 82 days in detention until October 23, 2024. Total documented: ~367 days.
• Jameson Timba and 34 CCC Activists: Arrested June 16, 2024, and held until November 27, 2024, when they received suspended sentences. This equates to 164 days each. For 35 individuals, that’s 5,740 days collectively.
• June 16, 2024, CCC Arrests (Broader Group): Over 70 people arrested at Timba’s home. Assuming all were detained for the same 164 days (some reports suggest a few were released earlier), this could be 70 × 164 = 11,480 days. However, subtracting the 35 above (to avoid double-counting), an additional 35 people yields 5,740 more days.

Other Notable Cases:

• Fadzayi Mahere (CCC MP): Detained 7 days in January 2021.
• Tsitsi Dangarembga and Julie Barnes: Arrested July 31, 2020, with short detentions (exact days unclear, likely 1-2 days each).
• Makomborero Haruzivishe: Sentenced in March 2021 for inciting violence, with pretrial detention of uncertain length but likely months, followed by a 1-year sentence (~365 days total).

Broader Patterns and Estimates

Beyond these cases, reports indicate widespread repression:

• Amnesty International (2023) notes "scores" of arrests, with opposition activists often spending 30 days on average in custody before bail, per The Irish Times (2022). If we assume 100 such arrests annually from 2018 to 2024 (a conservative guess based on "dozens" reported yearly), that’s 100 × 30 × 7 years = 21,000 days.
• Human Rights Watch (2024) reports over 160 arrests ahead of the August 2024 SADC summit, with many held for weeks to months. If 160 people averaged 60 days each (a midpoint between short and prolonged detentions), that’s 9,600 days.
• 2018 Post-Election Crackdown: 22 MDC activists arrested August 2, 2018, with remand periods of at least 30 days each (660 days total).
• 2019 Protests: Amnesty documented 128 activists arrested August 16, 2018, and others in January 2019, with detentions ranging from days to weeks. Estimating 128 × 20 days = 2,560 days.

Rough Aggregate Calculation

Combining specific cases and broader estimates:

• High-Profile Individuals: Sikhala (595) + Chin’ono (94) + Ngarivhume (367) + Mahere (7) = 1,063 days.
• Timba Group: 5,740 days (35 people).
• Broader June 2024 Arrests: 5,740 days (additional 35 people).
• Annual Opposition Arrests: 21,000 days (100 × 30 × 7).
• SADC Summit Crackdown: 9,600 days (160 × 60).

2018-2019 Incidents: 660 + 2,560 = 3,220 days. Total = 1,063 + 5,740 + 5,740 + 21,000 + 9,600 + 3,220 = 46,363 days.

Critical Considerations

• Underreporting: Many arrests go undocumented, especially in rural areas or brief detentions (1-2 days) that don’t make headlines. The true number could be double or triple this estimate.
• Overlap: Some groups (e.g., June 2024 arrests) may overlap with annual estimates, potentially inflating the figure.
• Variability: Detention lengths vary widely—some face hours, others years—making averages speculative.

Final Estimate

Given the data, a conservative estimate might be 50,000 to 100,000 days for activists, opposition members, and journalists detained from November 2017 to March 2025. A midpoint of 75,000 days aligns with documented trends and allows for unreported cases without wild exaggeration. This translates to roughly 205 years of collective detention, reflecting the scale of repression under Mnangagwa’s tenure.

This estimate, while imprecise, underscores a systemic pattern of judicial weaponization against dissent. The lack of a definitive tally reflects both the regime’s opacity and the challenge of tracking every case in real time. For a more exact count, a detailed database from human rights NGOs would be required—something beyond current public access.

 Further GROK3 interplay and questions 

Your supposition, as articulated by the Zimbabwe Human Rights Organisation (ZHRO), that there is little evidence of Zimbabwe being a democracy under Emmerson Mnangagwa’s leadership aligns with a significant body of observable data and analysis, particularly when viewed through the lens of the detention statistics we’ve explored and broader political dynamics.

Let’s evaluate this systematically, considering key democratic principles—free and fair elections, rule of law, freedom of expression, and protection of human rights—against the evidence from Mnangagwa’s term (November 24, 2017, to March 1, 2025).

Elections and Political Participation

Democracy hinges on elections that reflect the will of the people. Mnangagwa’s rise in November 2017 came not through a vote but via a military coup, dubbed a "military-assisted transition." The 2018 general election, his first test at the ballot box, was marred by credible allegations of rigging. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) reported Mnangagwa winning 50.8% of the vote, narrowly avoiding a runoff, but the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) contested the results.

International observers, like the European Union Election Observation Mission, noted irregularities: voter intimidation, misuse of state resources, and discrepancies in vote tallies, particularly in rural strongholds of ZANU-PF. Post-election protests on August 1, 2018, saw the military kill six civilians, signalling intolerance for dissent—a far cry from democratic norms.

The 2023 election further entrenched this pattern. The Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), led by Nelson Chamisa, faced systematic obstacles: candidates disqualified, rallies banned, and reports of ballot stuffing. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission, typically restrained, criticized the process for failing to meet regional standards.

Mnangagwa’s victory with 52.6% was again contested, yet upheld by a judiciary widely seen as captured by ZANU-PF.

The lack of a mandate derived from transparent, consensual elections undermines any claim to democratic legitimacy.

Rule of Law and Judicial Independence

A functioning democracy requires an impartial judiciary and adherence to the rule of law. The estimated 50,000 to 100,000 detention days for activists, opposition members, and journalists since 2017—often on charges like "inciting public violence" or "spreading falsehoods"—suggest a legal system weaponized to silence critics rather than uphold justice. Job Sikhala’s 595-day pretrial detention, for instance, exemplifies how remand is used punitively, bypassing due process. Human Rights Watch (2023) notes that courts routinely deny bail or impose harsh sentences disproportionate to alleged offenses, as seen with Jameson Timba’s group.
The judiciary’s alignment with ZANU-PF is evident in its rulings. Chief Justice Luke Malaba’s tenure extension in 2021, despite constitutional term limits, was forced through by Mnangagwa’s administration, eroding judicial independence. This contrasts sharply with democratic states where courts act as a check on executive power, not an extension of it.

Freedom of Expression and Assembly

Democratic societies protect free speech and the right to protest. In Zimbabwe, these rights are stifled. The arrests of journalists like Hopewell Chin’ono (over 94 days detained for tweets and reporting) and the banning of opposition rallies (e.g., CCC events in 2023) reflect a regime intolerant of scrutiny. The Patriotic Act (2023) criminalizes speech deemed to "undermine sovereignty," with vague wording that Amnesty International warns targets dissenters. Over 160 arrests before the August 2024 SADC summit, many for merely planning protests, further illustrate this clampdown. The cumulative detention days—potentially 75,000 or more—quantify a chilling effect on expression, incompatible with democratic openness.

Human Rights Protections

Democracies safeguard individual rights, yet Zimbabwe’s record is dire. Beyond detentions, reports of torture in custody abound—ZHRO and others document beatings, abductions (e.g., the 2020 case of MDC activists Cecilia Chinembiri and Netsai Marova), and extrajudicial killings (e.g., 2019 fuel protest crackdown, with 17 deaths). The government’s refusal to investigate or prosecute security forces, as noted by the UN Human Rights Council (2022), signals impunity rather than accountability. This aligns more with authoritarianism than democracy.

Counterarguments and Context

ZANU-PF might argue that Zimbabwe holds elections, has a constitution, and maintains a multiparty system—formal trappings of democracy. Mnangagwa’s "Second Republic" rhetoric promises reform, and some point to economic initiatives like the Zimbabwe Gold currency (ZiG) as governance efforts. However, these are superficial when weighed against the reality: elections are neither free nor fair, the constitution is selectively enforced, and opposition parties face existential threats. Stability, often cited by supporters, comes at the cost of repression, not consent.

Conclusion

1. The evidence—tens of thousands of detention days, rigged elections, a compromised judiciary, and suppressed freedoms—strongly supports ZHRO’s view.
2. Zimbabwe under Mnangagwa operates as a de facto authoritarian state, cloaked in democratic veneer.
3. The sheer scale of political imprisonment alone, averaging potentially 10,000 days annually, mirrors tactics of regimes like Belarus or North Korea more than any functioning democracy.
4. While no polity is perfectly democratic, Zimbabwe lacks even the basic thresholds: power derived from the people, exercised with restraint, and accountable to independent institutions.

Your supposition holds firm against the data.

NOTICE: ZHRO, ROHR,CCC and ZAPU {and other activists) will be in London on the 5th March 2025 to Petition the UK Government to help start the process of converting Zimbabwe into a DEMOCRACY. Step One is the REPLACEMENT of ZEC - to at least facilitate a FREE and Fair {the first ever} Election in Zimbabwe! See the Event Details AT THIS WEB LINK on the ZHRO Web site